While Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana show potential for substantial crops as the main season gets underway, the overall global market dynamics continue to balance supply optimism with structural vulnerabilities and quality concerns that affect both local market stability and global cocoa supply chains.
Côte d’Ivoire has announced it will set its farmgate price on 1 October. An Abidjan-based analyst informed cocoaradar.com that for now there is no tangible evidence to suggest that the current season is heading toward an oversupply.
“In Côte d’Ivoire as in Ghana, the recent return of rains remains too limited to justify such a conclusion. As for Ecuador, often cited as a balancing factor, its weight in global production remains marginal compared to that of West Africa.
“It is worth recalling that Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana together account for more than 60% of the world’s cocoa supply. Yet current conditions in these two countries do not assure surplus output.
"Certainly, if rainfall persists in the coming weeks, the outlook could change. But for now, talk of an oversupply is more speculation than grounded analysis.”
Quick Recap for Week of 18–25 September 2025 & Near‑Term Signals
During the specific week 18–25 Sept, the price rebound (~0.8% on 24 Sept) suggests that:
- The market may have found a short-term technical floor (support) around USD 7,000/tonne.
- Traders are likely parsing incoming weather updates and supply arrival data from key ports.
- Any adverse weather reports or delays in arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire / Ghana could trigger bounce backs.
- Conversely, further weak demand signals or disappointing grinding data could push down prices further.
- In short, expect relatively modest volatility in that week, unless a surprise supply or demand event emerges.