BCOM Rebalancing Inflows Seen Manageable as Ghana Reforms and Surplus Outlook Reinforce Bearish Cocoa Narrative

Cocoa markets are bracing for up to $2bn in index-linked inflows from the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing, but traders see the buying as easily absorbed amid liquid futures markets and persistently bearish fundamentals. Expectations of a 2025-26 surplus, weak grinding demand, and rebuilding stocks are being reinforced by signs of improving production prospects in West Africa, including a reform-driven reset of Ghana’s cocoa sector under new COCOBOD leadership, even as short-term price volatility lingers.

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