After a bullish start to 2025, cocoa prices are now cascading, marking a steep 3.6 % drop to USD 5,954/T, this week ending a historic two-year rally that had driven the market to record highs.
Still, cocoa prices remain under pressure after Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the two largest producers, increased farmgate prices at the beginning of the month, which is expected to boost sales and cocoa supplies.
In its latest report, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasts a swing from deficit to surplus in 2024-25, following a shortfall in 2023/24. While production is recovering, demand remains weak - putting downward pressure on prices.
While Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria, navigate this evolving market landscape with strategic pricing policies and resilience-building investments, the industry’s trajectory will depend on adaptive measures, including weather monitoring, disease management, strategic pricing, and sustained demand recovery.
We trace the stages of the rally‑then‑retreat and explore whether the slide signals a structural reset or a pause before the next leg.