Cocoa Today, Cocoa Tomorrow? NCA conference to convene high-profile panel on cocoa’s wild ride

This high-profile panel brings together:

• Anna Flaig, Senior Director Commercial – Cocoa & Chocolate North America, Cargill
• Hugo van der Goes, SVP Commercial, Blommer Chocolate Company
• Moderated by Anthony Myers, Editor-in-Chief & Founder, CocoaRadar.com

At a moment when cocoa markets are recalibrating after historic volatility, the session promises an in-depth examination of crop conditions, commodity trading dynamics, consumer demand shifts, and short- and long-term price expectations. For manufacturers, traders, and brand leaders navigating uncertainty, the timing could not be more critical.

A Market in Retreat — But Not at Rest

Recent industry research suggests 2026 has opened with a striking reversal: cocoa prices are down more than 48% year-to-date, pressured by a West African supply glut, weakening grind demand, and sustained speculative short positioning. ICE US stocks are building seasonally, while exports from Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana are lagging amid rising inventories.

Yet beneath the bearish headline numbers lies complexity:

• Medium-term price expectations remain in the $4,000–$5,000 range, with some analysts arguing current levels sit below fair value.
• Industry cover hovers around nine months — still below historic norms — suggesting further hedging activity may emerge as prices stabilize.
• Ecuador’s exports are up nearly 20% year-over-year, reflecting multi-year investment in production growth.
• Grindings are expected to remain soft in the first half of 2026, with potential improvement in the second half.

Speculative positioning remains cautious but steady. Technical indicators point to limited upside in the near term, though any short covering could trigger a sharp snap-back rally — a reminder that volatility remains embedded in the system.

Supply, Demand — and Structural Questions

The 2024-25 global surplus followed three consecutive deficit years, underscoring how rapidly the market can shift. High prices stimulated production but dampened consumer demand. German retailers are already adjusting shelf prices downward, and snack-size chocolate formats are outperforming larger packs as consumers trade down.

Manufacturers are watching cocoa butter markets closely, with expectations for sub-$7,000/mt levels — the lowest in more than two years. Despite current headwinds, many in the industry project improved earnings by 2027 as demand normalises and pricing finds equilibrium.

These dynamics will frame the SOTIC discussion — but the conversation extends beyond price.

From Amsterdam to Florida: The Flavour Debate

Last month’s Amsterdam Cocoa Week, as reported by CocoaRadar, surfaced deeper structural tensions shaping cocoa’s future.

Industry voices emphasised a growing paradox:

• Productivity & disease resistance (short-term necessity) vs. Flavour diversity & differentiation (long-term brand value)
• Incremental changes — higher-yield hybrids such as CCN-type varieties, shifts in roasting and refining, cocoa butter ratio adjustments — are helping manage costs and improve resilience. But experts warned these adaptations may gradually narrow chocolate’s flavour spectrum.

Several themes in Amsterdam emerged:

• ‘Flavour has value’ — echoing philosophy long championed by Ferrero.
• West Africa remains indispensable for foundational ‘deep chocolate’ profiles used globally.
• Quality must sit at the centre of pricing discussions; higher and more consistent quality is essential to justify better farmgate returns.
• Farmer living income ambitions are unattainable without reliability, consistency, and buyer trust.

Perhaps most striking was the consensus that extreme price volatility — from peaks near $12,000–$14,000 per metric ton (including premiums) to troughs near $3,000 — has damaged every layer of the value chain:

• High prices fuelled demand destruction and business closures.
• Low prices undermine farmer livelihoods.
• Violent swings erode confidence and long-term planning.

The call was clear: incremental change is no longer enough. Structural reform is needed to stabilise pricing mechanisms, support farmers, protect brands, and reduce exposure to future shocks.

A Defining Moment for the Industry

SOTIC has long served as the global confectionery sector’s strategic pulse check. This year, with cocoa markets correcting sharply after historic highs, the stakes feel elevated.

‘Cocoa Today, Cocoa Tomorrow' will not simply dissect charts and forecasts. It will confront the deeper question facing chocolate: Can the industry balance productivity, profitability, quality, and farmer sustainability — without sacrificing the very flavour identity that built global demand?

Florida may offer the next chapter in that answer. Next week’s discussions will signal not only where cocoa prices are headed, but what kind of chocolate future the industry is choosing to build. 

• CocoaRadar will be reporting live from SOTIC, SIGN UP HERE for the daily newsletter for all the news coming out of Florida.

More than 750 attendees are expected for this year’s event, including executives from companies such as Hershey, Mars Wrigley, Mondelēz, Ferrero and major retailers like Walmart and Target along with mainly senior executives from:

• confectionery manufacturers
• cocoa and ingredient suppliers
• equipment companies
• brokers and distributors
• major retail buyers

Other Key Sessions Shaping the Future of Confectionery

SOTIC 2026 brings together senior leaders from across the confectionery value chain to examine market trends, consumer behaviour, and the future of chocolate and candy. The programme combines commodity insights, retail intelligence and brand strategy discussions. 

State of Treating 2026 with Anne-Marie Roerink, President, 210 Analytics

The 7th annual State of Treating delivers a clear view of confectionery shopping and treating trends in 2025. Combining a category performance review with the story behind the numbers, this year’s study highlights where confectionery is holding strong and where growth opportunities are emerging for 2026 and beyond.

Retail & Consumer Trends

A major breakout session focuses on seasonal confectionery demand, which drives more than 60% of category sales, highlighting how shifting shopping habits, economic pressures and social commerce are reshaping retail strategies for chocolate and candy brands. 

Industry Leadership & Strategy

A general session features a fireside conversation with Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner, examining the long-term outlook for the confectionery category and the role of collaboration between manufacturers and retailers in sustaining growth.

Marketing & Consumer Attention

Entrepreneur and marketing strategist Gary Vaynerchuk to deliver a high-energy discussion on how brands can capture consumer attention in a rapidly shifting digital landscape using AI, influencer culture and new storytelling platforms. 

Networking & Leadership Development

The conference also includes:

• Women’s Leadership mentoring roundtables
• Young Professionals networking sessions
• Supplier and retailer networking events

Other news: Perfetti Van Melle’s Sylvia Buxton Named NCA’s 2026 Advocate of the Year

The NCA has named Sylvia Buxton, president and CEO of Perfetti Van Melle's Americas business unit, its 2026 Advocate of the Year.

The award recognises Buxton’s leadership in advancing the confectionery industry’s voice in policy discussions at the federal, state, and local levels. A veteran executive with more than 30 years of experience in fast-moving consumer goods, Buxton leads a business unit of more than 2,400 employees across the US, Canada, Mexico, and Latin America. She also serves on the National Confectioners Association’s Board of Trustees and Strategic Advisory Committee.

The Advocate of the Year Award honours individuals who make significant contributions to advancing and protecting the confectionery industry’s interests in public policy. Buxton will eceive the recognition during this year’s SOTIC.

• Full SOTIC programme available here.

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