SUMMARY:
Global cocoa prices remain volatile as surplus forecasts for the 2025–26 cocoa season continue to be revised lower. While cocoa supply conditions have improved in parts of West Africa, production shortfalls in other origins and falling exchange-monitored stocks are keeping the global cocoa market highly sensitive to disruption.
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Cocoa futures rebounded in early December after weakness in November, highlighting how quickly cocoa price volatility can return. Strong arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire and Ecuador have eased immediate supply concerns, but recent drawdowns in cocoa inventories and ongoing weather risks in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire remain key upside risks.
On the demand side, chocolate consumption is proving resilient but increasingly price-sensitive. Manufacturers continue to manage high cocoa costs through price increases and shrinkflation. Meanwhile, regulatory pressure has eased after the EU confirmed a delay to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), offering short-term relief for cocoa and chocolate companies.
Overall, the cocoa market outlook remains finely balanced. Improving crop flows are offset by weather uncertainty, inventory tightness, and structural volatility across the cocoa supply chain.