Cocoa futures are testing multi-year lows as technical selling meets shifting fundamentals, even as chocolate manufacturers absorb the aftershocks of last year’s price spike and major traders reposition through consolidation. Together, these developments signal a market moving decisively from crisis-driven volatility toward a new competitive and structural equilibrium.
Cocoa prices have plunged sharply this week as technical momentum and fundamental pressures converge on the softs market. Benchmark ICE cocoa futures in New York and London both slid around 6–7%, driving U.S. contracts to their lowest levels in over two years. The sell-off accelerated on Tuesday, with NY cocoa down more than 7%, amid reports of rising exports (notably from Nigeria) and ample global inventory levels.
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This recent swing has followed a broader downtrend that has seen cocoa prices retreat roughly 50–65% from 2024’s record highs, as the market digests excess supply expectations and weaker demand dynamics.