Côte d’Ivoire Arrivals Surprise to the Upside as Geopolitical Shock Rewrites Cocoa’s Cost Curve

Key Development

Cocoa arrivals at Côte d'Ivoire ports surged to 31,000 tonnes for the week ending March 29, more than doubling last year’s 13,562 tonnes. Cumulative arrivals have now reached 1.424 million tonnes, narrowing the season’s deficit to just 1.17% year-on-year after earlier declines.

The data – circulating via niche market trackers and broadly aligned with recent Reuters trends – points to a stronger-than-expected tail to the 2025/26 crop. Market sources suggest the release of previously untapped rural stockpiles, potentially in the range of 60,000–100,000 tonnes.

At face value, this development challenges the prevailing narrative of persistent supply tightness.

However, the improvement in physical availability is unfolding alongside a significant exogenous shock: disruptions to energy, fertiliser, and shipping systems linked to tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.