Côte d’Ivoire's cocoa arrivals have caught up with last season, signaling a headline recovery in global supply – but underlying operational and market tensions continue to complicate the outlook.
According to latest reports, port arrivals reached 1.446 million tonnes by 5 April, narrowly exceeding last year by 0.24%. Weekly volumes surged to 22,000 tonnes from just 1,587 tonnes a year earlier, highlighting a sharp late-season acceleration. This rebound could add roughly 74,000 tonnes to near-term exports, reinforcing expectations of a global surplus in the 2025-26 season after two years of tight supply.
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However, domestic pressures remain acute. Authorities are holding the farmgate price at 1,200 FCFA/kg despite declining international prices (around $3,154/tonne), while the sector contends with contract defaults, unsold stockpiles, and rigid pricing structures.
The shift from deficit to marginal surplus is a pivotal change for global cocoa markets and helps explain the more than 50% drop in prices from recent highs. While overall availability has improved, quality concerns – linked to uneven weather, disease, and drying challenges – are rising. As a result, the gap between headline supply and usable output may limit the market impact of higher volumes.
For buyers and investors, the picture remains nuanced. Futures markets reflect surplus conditions, but on-the-ground frictions – including logistics, quality issues, and policy intervention – continue to constrain effective supply and sustain pressure at the producer level.