In its February 2025 Cocoa Market Report, futures prices started at US$10,747 in London and US$10,952 in New York, dropping by 9% to US$9,814 and US$9,984, respectively, contrasting with February 2024 when the cocoa futures price structure was in ‘backwardation’ as tight supplies prevailed at the time.
This month, the price structure switched to a ‘contango’ form in both markets. “This can be viewed as a sign that supply was not a major issue for the month under review for the cocoa market,” the ICCO said.
Cocoa leaders gather in Brazil
Less market volatility will calm nerves in São Paulo this week when industry leaders and government officials from origin countries gather for the World Cocoa Foundation Partnership Meeting.
The ICCO reports that prices remained rangebound between US$9,662 and US$10,240 in London, and US$9,690 and US$10,397 in New York during the second week.
By the end of the third week, prices fell to US$9,248 in London and US$8,951 in New York. A rebound occurred last week, but prices did not return to early-month levels.
Supply and demand
More good news for the sector ahead of the Meeting is that record cocoa prices led to increased investments in cocoa farms, resulting in improved output.
Cote d’Ivoire reported a 14.8% increase in cocoa arrivals, totaling1.4 million tonnes by March 9, 2025. Ghana's graded sealed cocoa reached nearly 550,000 tonnes by January 2025, exceeding the estimated production of 530,000 tonnes for the 2023/24 season.
Production in other leading exporting countries like Nigeria has also been reported to be following an upward trend.
The ICCO states that reports of a slowdown in cocoa exports from Cote d’Ivoire were a supportive factor for prices. It should be noted that a slowdown in exports does not mean a decline in arrivals.
Anthony Myers
Consumer spending and the threat of tariffs
Still, major manufacturers, including Mondēlez and Hershey reported financial challenges due to high cocoa prices, impacting demand; some are considering raising product prices, potentially decreasing sales volumes.
One market insider told cocoaradar.com: “There are rumours that major companies are manipulating the market with bearish news and false graded warehouse stock figures (a key indicator for stocks). Now only the real sales business will reflect the actual market situation. Cocoa market continues consolidating, seeking new support and resistance levels.”
Since falling to a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on 24 January, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have rebounded and climbed to a 4-month high of 1,678,078 bags last Friday.
The ICCO also warned consumers may cut discretionary spending, affecting confectionery purchases. Another potential downer for the industry is that major consuming regions face macroeconomic uncertainty, exacerbated by tariffs, particularly from the United States.
See all our coverage of the WCFPM 2025
Anthony Myers
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