New data from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly known as Kantar) show UK grocery price inflation slowed to 4.7 % in the four weeks to 2 November 2025—down from 5.2 % a month earlier—as supermarkets ramp up pre‑Christmas promotions.
Retailers are launching simpler price cuts rather than multibuy deals to show value for money and ease pressure on shoppers ahead of the government’s budget on 26.
Chocolate confectionery leads price rises: Worldpanel notes that prices are still rising fastest in chocolate confectionery, with fresh meat and coffee also seeing notable increases. By contrast, household paper, sugar confectionery and dog food prices are falling.
Promotions set to dominate Christmas shopping: Promotional shopping is growing quickly—spending on discounted items rose 9.4 % year‑on‑year, and nearly 30 % of October grocery spending was on promotions. Analysts expect this figure to climb further as Christmas approaches, suggesting retailers will continue to lean heavily on deals to attract bargain‑hunting consumers.
Bottom line: The UK confectionery market enters the 2025 festive season with grocery inflation easing and cocoa costs retreating from record highs. Yet chocolate confectionery remains the fastest‑rising grocery category, and retailers are expected to flood the market with promotions to support volumes. Despite economic headwinds, consumers continue to crave small indulgences, keeping chocolate demand surprisingly resilient.