The front-month contract in London averaged US$8,100 per tonne, fluctuating between US$7,844 and US$8,326 per tonne. In New York, the average price was US$8,055 per tonne, with a range of US$7,728 to US$8,415 per tonne.
The front-month contract generally traded at a discount compared to the second-month contract, indicating no supply tightness, according to the ICCO.
Ivorian mid-crop
Despite concerns about the Ivorian mid-crop due to insufficient rainfall, prices did not react significantly, as improved production forecasts from other major cocoa-producing countries were expected to offset potential losses, the ICCO reported.
Stocks
Additionally, cocoa demand weakened, contributing to bearish price developments. Cocoa bean stocks increased significantly during March 2025, with a 68% rise in London and a 25% rise in New York.
Global macroeconomic uncertainty, driven by anticipated US tariffs, also influenced market sentiment, though the tariffs were not yet implemented during March and are not included in the latest ICCO report.
Snapshot: Cocoa Market Update - March 2025
- Cocoa prices averaged US$8,100/tonne in London and US$8,055/tonne in New York, with no supply tightness observed.
- Weak demand and rising stock levels (68% in London, 25% in New York) contributed to bearish price trends.
- Better production forecasts from other countries offset concerns about Cote d’Ivoire’s mid-crop.
- Additionally, anticipation of US tariffs caused market uncertainty, though they were not yet implemented in March.
So what's influencing cocoa prices?
Cocoaradar.com can reveal that several factors influenced cocoa prices in March 2025, including:
Supply Conditions: The front-month contract traded at a discount to the second-month contract, indicating no supply tightness. Concerns about the Ivorian mid-crop arose due to insufficient rainfall, but improved production forecasts from other major cocoa-producing countries were expected to offset potential losses.
Demand Weakness: A weakening in cocoa demand contributed to bearish price developments. Quarterly grindings data, expected in mid-April, were anticipated to provide further insights into demand trends.
Stock Levels: Cocoa bean stocks increased significantly during March 2025, with a 68% rise in London and a 25% rise in New York, which likely exerted downward pressure on prices.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Anticipation of US tariffs caused market jitters, as participants feared global economic uncertainty and potential trade wars. However, the ICCO also reported that the tariffs had not yet been implemented during March.
Anthony Myers