Following the Easter break, Cocoa prices are expected to benefit from a positive carryover from last week's news, which showed better-than-expected global cocoa demand.
Regional grindings data
- European grindings declined by 3.7% year-over-year, totaling 353,522 metric tons. This decrease was smaller than the anticipated 5% to 7% drop, suggesting that demand remained relatively robust despite high cocoa prices.
- In Asia, grindings fell by 3.4% to 213,898 metric tons, again outperforming expectations of a 5% to 7% decline.
- North American grindings decreased by 2.5% to 110,278 metric tons, better than the expected decline of at least 5%.
Earlier this month, New York cocoa prices fell to a one-month low, and London cocoa prices dropped to a five-month low, due to concerns that consumer demand for cocoa and cocoa products will decline as the global trade war escalates, according to barchart.com.
New York cocoa futures rose on Wednesday boosted by recent data indicating that demand for beans has been stronger than expected, after they suffered a modest setback earlier in the week linked to the bullish first-quarter grinding data.
Market implications
In the first quarter global cocoa grindings experienced a moderate decline compared to the same period in 2024. However, the reductions were less severe than anticipated across major regions with several implications:
- Price Support: The resilience in demand has provided support to cocoa prices, which had been under pressure due to concerns about oversupply and economic challenges.
- Supply Concerns: Despite an anticipated global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024-25 season, concerns about the mid-crop harvest in Cote d’Ivoire, projected to be 400,000 metric tons (a 9% decrease from the previous year), have added uncertainty to the supply outlook.
- Consumer Behaviour: Although demand has remained relatively stable, indications suggest that high cocoa prices are prompting manufacturers to consider reformulating products or passing costs on to consumers, which could impact future demand.
Cocoaradar view
Looking ahead, the cocoa market is expected to navigate a complex landscape of supply dynamics, price volatility, and shifting consumer preferences. The resilience observed in Q1 2025 grindings suggests that demand may continue to hold up in the near term, but ongoing monitoring of market conditions will be essential.
- For more detailed information and updates on cocoa grindings, refer to the following sources:
- International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)
- European Cocoa Association (ECA) Grind Stats
- Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) Q1 2025 Report
- National Confectioners Association (NCA) Cocoa Grinds Report
Anthony Myers