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Q4 2025 cocoa grindings delivered a decisive shock: this is no longer a supply-led market. A deep miss in Europe, compounded by weakness across Brazil and Asia, confirms that elevated prices are actively destroying demand—faster and more broadly than consensus expected. At the same time, futures are rolling over, specs are being flushed out, and the narrative is shifting from scarcity to surplus risk.
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In this Pro analysis briefing, we go beyond the headlines to connect the dots across grindings data, positioning flows, corporate pricing power, and West African supply politics. We quantify the scale of global demand erosion, assess what falling prices really signal, and explain why structurally elevated volatility persists despite improving arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire.
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