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Rainy day for Mondelēz but inconsistent downfalls for cocoa farmers threaten crops

Market Report: Cocoa prices remain bearish after lacklustre Mondelēz sales, with all eyes on the mid-crop as Uganda boosts its production

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Cocoa trading at 8733.051 USD/T on Thursday, May 01, a 257.66 USD/T (2.87%) decrease from 8990.711 on the last trading session.

While there remains anxiety regarding the mid-crop in West Africa, farmers in Cote d’Ivoire said that regular rainfall through May would help the development of young cherelles and small pods that will be ready to harvest in August and September, providing a boost in production at the tail end of the mid-crop, according to a Reuters report.

With the region entering its April to mid-November rainy season, a period when showers should be abundant and often heavy, farmers are reporting inconsistent rain and long, hot, dry spells, with no ripe pods on trees and flowers yet to fruit. 

Mondelēz results

On the markets, cocoa prices remain bearish, not helped by Mondelēz International's reporting of its Q1 2025 earnings on April 29, 2025, which revealed modest revenue growth but significant declines in profitability due to rising input costs and pressure on volumes.

Consumer cutbacks

Cocoa prices remained lower after it was reported that consumers were cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices.

Barchart.com also reports that there has been a negative carryover to cocoa prices since Monday when Bloomberg reported that Nigerian March cocoa exports rose 24% year-over-year to 27,564 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest producer of cocoa.  

Advantage Uganda?

As of 2024, Uganda ranks approximately 12th globally in cocoa production, with an annual output of around 50,000 metric tons, representing a 10,000 MT increase in the past 12 months. This demonstrates remarkable growth, capitalizing on favourable global market conditions and proactive domestic initiatives. 

According to the latest data, the country exported 7,652 metric tons (MT) in January and 7,930 MT in February, a substantial increase compared to the same period last year, when 6,242 MT were exported in January and 5,527 MT in February.

Quality beans

With quality beans in demand on the global markets, the rise in output has also meant exports have hit a record high, earning $68.7 million (Shs254 billion) in February 2025, According to the latest report from the Bank of Uganda.

This represents a 42% increase in cumulative revenue for the 2024-2025 period - and  a significant boost to the country's economy.

The upward trend began in December 2024, when Uganda exported cocoa beans worth $44.2 million, and continued into January 2025, with exports valued at $67.8 million.

In total, the country earned $296 million from cocoa exports in 2024, marking a substantial increase in revenue. 



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