Supply Rebounds, Demand Retreats: Cocoa’s New Reality Hits the Market

A decisive shift takes hold as West African supply steadies, global grindings weaken, and cocoa futures slide to multi-month lows — signalling a fragile but unmistakable market reset.

The ICCO’s findings in its latest Market Report (October 2025) strengthen the narrative that supply conditions are improving, even if port arrivals look weak.

Stock-building behaviour in Côte d’Ivoire and improvements in quality management support a more resilient supply picture for early 2026.

Price Trend & Market Sentiment

The ICCO report confirms a clear downward trend in cocoa prices at the start of the 2025-26 season.

• In October 2025, DEC-25 futures traded between US$5,478–6,320/t in London and US$5,809–6,686/t in New York. Prices then fell ~8% by month end.
• This contrasts sharply with October 2024, when tight supply pushed prices 11% higher in London and 4% higher in New York.

This reinforces the current market’s bearish shift, consistent with the declines seen in the past seven days.

Supply Conditions: Weak Arrivals but Possible Stock-Building

• Côte d’Ivoire port arrivals reached 411,000 tonnes by 10 Nov 2025, down 9.7% YoY.
• However, ICCO notes this may not reflect a bad harvest — rather processors appear to be stockpiling high-quality beans after a poor mid-crop with high rejection rates.

This suggests supply may be firmer than port data indicates, aligning with recent global sentiment that has eased supply fears.

Demand Conditions: Weakening Grindings Across Regions

The report’s grindings chart shows a clear downturn in global demand:

• Asia: –17.1% YoY to 183,413 tonnes, the lowest Q3 grind in nine years.
• Europe: –4.8% YoY to 337,353 tonnes.
• North America: +3.2% YoY to 112,784 tonnes, though this increase stems from two additional reporting plants, not real demand growth.

This confirms the broader trend from the past 7-day market analysis: Demand is weak, capping any upward price momentum.

Risks Ahead (Seasonal, Regulatory, Weather)

The ICCO warns that despite the current bearish tone, the outlook could change quickly due to:

• EUDR regulatory shifts
• Seasonal uncertainties
• Potential weather disruptions (e.g., Harmattan winds) All of these could squeeze supply once again.

In its latest report, barchart.com, reports cocoa prices settled lower on Wednesday 26 November,  but remained above last Wednesday's 1.75-year nearest-future lows after the European Parliament approved a 1-year delay to the EUDR, keeping cocoa supplies ample.