Côte d'Ivoire reported a strong 20,000-ton cocoa arrival on 17 March, 2026, up 46% from 13,716 tons a year earlier and above the five-year average of 19,000 tons. That matters because it suggests tail-end supply in the world’s largest producer is holding up better than the headline season-to-date figure implies.
Official arrivals for the season stand at 1.37 million tons, down 3% year on year. But when an estimated 100,000-130,000 tons of unreported rural stockpiles are considered, the underlying balance appears materially stronger, pointing to an effective 4-5% surplus rather than a deficit. With the main crop nearing its end and weaker year-ago benchmarks still ahead, the recent pace could support a firmer mid-crop start and reduce some of the tightness that drove the market higher over the past year, according to X trader @Rebelty_8.
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Ecuador
Ecuador adds to that picture. February 2026 exports fell approximately 11% year on year to 40,520 tons, but the decline was less severe than January’s and appears to have been anticipated. More importantly, season-to-date exports are still up roughly 3%, supporting forecasts for 610,000-620,000 tons this season, with some discussion of further upward revisions. Industry expectations cited in the source material include a revised 615,000-ton national output estimate, up from 580,000 tons previously.
Why it Matters
For cocoa markets, this combination suggests the supply recovery is broadening. Côte d'Ivoire’s late-season strength and Ecuador’s still-positive cumulative export pace both support the idea that global deficits may ease faster than feared.
For chocolate manufacturers, that could bring some relief after an extended period of supply stress and elevated input costs. It does not eliminate risk, but it may improve procurement visibility and reduce the urgency that has defined recent buying behaviour.
For investors, buyers, and customers, the strategic question is whether this becomes a temporary stabilisation or the start of a more durable surplus cycle. Current projections point to sizeable global surpluses in 2025-26, with some estimates ranging from 287,000 tons to 365,000 tons, and potentially similar conditions in 2026-27. That helps explain why prices have fallen sharply from 2024 highs.