After two years dominated by record cocoa prices, the sector is now navigating what analysts describe as a three-way squeeze: tariff-driven uncertainty across supply chains, instability in cocoa-producing countries, and the risk of renewed energy inflation linked to the ongoing Iran conflict.
Speaking at the World Cocoa Foundation Partnership Meeting in Amsterdam last month, Brian McKeon, the NCA’s SVP Public Policy, said the environment confronting chocolate manufacturers has become increasingly complex.
“Cocoa is a unique commodity where suppliers, farmers and brands come together in a competitive but collaborative space to confront shared market challenges,” McKeon noted, emphasizing the importance of industry cooperation at a time of structural disruption.
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Tariffs continue to ripple through supply chains
Trade policy remains a key pressure point for US confectionery manufacturers.
“We’ve all tried to manage through this last year with tariffs. It’s been a significant challenge for us brands and US processors,” McKeon said. “Those are going to exist across the entire supply network. There are inputs that are not exempt that are providing problems for us.”
While some cocoa products have seen partial tariff relief, the broader challenge lies in intermediate ingredients, packaging components and equipment, which continue to face duties and trade friction. As companies work through older inventory and renegotiate contracts, analysts expect the full consumer price impact to become more visible through 2026.
Energy shock risk returns
Another emerging variable is energy.
The escalation of conflict involving Iran has injected volatility into global oil and gas markets, raising concerns about potential disruption around the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global energy flows.