Weak Grindings, Surplus Signals and Macro Pressures Maintain a Bearish Outlook in Cocoa Price Narrative

Global cocoa markets continue to signal demand softness and a likely surplus in the 2025/26 season, driven by weak grindings and improving supply fundamentals.

Grindings Data Disappoint

Recent regional grindings — a key demand indicator — have been softer than expected. European Q4 cocoa grindings fell 8.3% year-on-year to ~304,470 MT, the lowest for a Q4 in over a decade, while Asian grindings dropped 4.8% to ~197,022 MT. North American grindings showed only marginal growth of +0.3% to ~103,117 MT. These figures point to subdued chocolate processing activity amid elevated prices and softer consumer demand, dampening near-term demand prospects. 

Price Action Reflects Bearish Demand and Surplus Expectations

Cocoa prices have sold off sharply, with both New York and London contracts reaching multiyear lows as markets price in weaker demand and surplus risk. Analysts note that weak grinding figures have contributed to this downward pressure. On the markets, cocoa prices plunged with NY cocoa posting a 2-year nearest-futures low and London cocoa posting a 2.25-year nearest-futures low this week.