Cadbury-maker Mondelēz cuts full-year profit forecast as demand softens, high prices pushing artisans to ‘breaking point’

In June Wells Fargo analysts raised its rating from ‘Equal Weight’ to ‘Overweight’ and increased its price target to US $78 (from US $68) on the basis that: “While the company is confronting historical inflation in 2025, pricing execution has been strong, inflation looks likely to temper in 2026, and we see a recovery of earnings ahead.” 

Key points from the latest Mondelēz International results

• Mondelēz now expects its 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to fall approximately 15%, up from a prior expectation of a 10% decline, Reuters has reported.
• The company has also lowered its organic net revenue growth expectation to just above 4%, down from roughly 5% forecast earlier this year. 

The trigger:

• Weaker demand for higher-priced snacks and chocolates in both North America and Europe amid consumer price sensitivity.
• Elevated input cost pressures, notably cocoa (though cocoa prices may be stabilising).
• Volume declines: For example, in Europe volumes dropped about 7.5 percentage points, and in North America around 1.8 percentage points. (Reuters)
• The company reported Q3 net sales of approximately. US $9.74 billion, slightly ahead of estimates. Adjusted EPS also beat by about 2 cents.

Implications for the cocoa/chocolate market 

The weaker-than-expected performance from a major global chocolate/snack maker suggests that consumers are economising on premium confectionery, which may reduce demand pressure for cocoa in some markets.