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Independent research from Citigroup has warned cocoa prices could climb to $5,000 a tonne over the next three months and reach $6,000 within a year as the return of El Niño raises fresh concerns over global supplies.
In its third-quarter commodities outlook, Citi said the weather pattern could have an outsized effect on a market that remains vulnerable following the historic supply crisis of 2024.
“In the fragile market that we are currently projecting, a weather cataclysm could have an amplified impact on prices,” the bank said.
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New York cocoa futures settled at $4,237 per tonne last week. Citi forecasts a global cocoa deficit of 56,000 tonnes in the 2026-27 season, compared with a modest surplus of 111,000 tonnes in 2025-26, while warning that weak pod-setting in West Africa’s main crop could further tighten supplies.
The bank noted that the last moderate El Niño episode in 2023-24 brought strong Harmattan winds to West Africa, damaging older trees, while the previous strong El Niño in 2015-16 contributed to a sharp decline in Ecuadorian production.
The market warning comes as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 63% probability that the current El Niño will intensify into a very strong event during the northern hemisphere winter of 2026-27.