How to read CocoaRadar Market Barometer™
CRII — How stressed is the market? A stress-intensity gauge, not price direction. The published score is capped at 100; the raw score and its change reveal movement beyond that ceiling.
Market Bias — Which direction is confirmed? The directional regime supported by the approved evidence. A one-day rally does not by itself establish a reversal.
Confidence — How dependable is the assessment? Evidence quality and completeness constrain the published reading. Model confidence is shown before the evidence cap. A reading of 55 is not a 55% forecast probability.
Pressure — What is happening within that regime? The immediate market condition. Bearish bias can coexist with fragile stabilisation when downside pressure eases, but recovery remains unconfirmed.
Reading the four together: Cocoa remains highly stressed and Bearish, but stronger paired finishes support fragile stabilisation while incomplete technical repair and qualified physical evidence prevent a confirmed recovery call.