Speaking on 2 June, Barry Callebaut CEO Hein Schumacher warned that developing El Niño conditions could add “a few thousand pounds per metric ton” to cocoa prices, citing unusually heavy rainfall in Ecuador and elevated temperatures in West Africa as emerging weather risks.
While Schumacher does not expect a repeat of the record-breaking 2024 rally, he noted that weather conditions remain a critical market focus, according to a report on Reuters.
Since those comments, forecasts have become increasingly supportive of an El Niño scenario. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) now estimates an 80% probability that El Niño will develop during June–August 2026 and a 90% probability that it will persist through at least November.
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Most climate models suggest the event could reach moderate-to-strong intensity, supported by significantly above-average subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The weather outlook is already influencing market behaviour. Reports indicate that Côte d’Ivoire’s Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) has slowed some forward sales of the 2026-27 main crop and raised sales premiums amid concerns that El Niño-related drought could tighten future supplies.
El Niño forecasts are also closely monitored in Ecuador. Cocoa farmer Fernando Guzman Bertullo told CocoaRadar that in his country, El Niño usually arrives later in the year, but this time it is different.
“The rainy season has not stopped. And the very hot temperatures continue. We normally reach 27 °C by the end of May, but this month we have experienced temperatures between 33 and 35 °C. That is very hot for us, and the humidity is above 88%.
“I think we should take this information very seriously. I also think it will strike us hard. We do not know how hard, though. We pray to God that not too much.”
Market Outlook: The cocoa narrative is shifting from recovery after the 2024 supply crisis to renewed concern over weather-related production risks. With official forecasters signalling a high-probability El Niño event and Côte d’Ivoire adopting a more cautious marketing strategy, weather risk is once again emerging as a key bullish driver for cocoa prices heading into the second half of 2026.