The new cocoa season has begun in Côte d’Ivoire under the shadow of a strengthening El Niño, but two sharply different industry assessments show why weather headlines alone cannot determine the outlook.
Recent analysis by Barry Callebaut said it did not expect a shortage of cocoa beans in the coming crop cycle. The world’s largest supplier of chocolate and cocoa argued that the market has a stronger buffer than it did during the 2023 and 2024 supply shock, supported by improved availability, inventories and customer coverage.
Still, Guan Chong chief executive Brandon Tay Hoe Lian offered a markedly more bearish view. He forecast a global deficit of 300,000–400,000 tonnes in 2026-27, compared with a surplus of approximately 100,000 tonnes a year earlier, as weather risks coincide with stabilising demand.
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Tay spoke in an interview on the sidelines of the CAA International Cocoa Conference in Singapore, where CocoaRadar was a media partner. He said excessive rainfall had already waterlogged some West African farms, increased disease risk and weakened pod development. El Niño could then intensify the dry Harmattan winds and place trees under further stress.
The contrast is not merely a dispute over one forecast. It illustrates Barry Callebaut’s central point: El Niño is important, but it is only one part of a market shaped by crop health, inventories, demand, farmer behaviour and conditions that vary by origin.