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Europe Grindings Weaken as Asia Rebounds; West Africa Pushes Value Addition; Weather risk overtakes inventory comfort

Premium news briefing: The contrasting regional grinding results suggest cocoa demand remains soft in mature Western markets while Asian processing continues to expand as cocoa futures remained highly volatile

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Cocoa trading at 5535.065 USD/T on Thursday, July 16, a 347.935 USD/T (5.91%) decrease from 5883.000 on the last trading session.

European cocoa processing remained under pressure in the second quarter, while Asia delivered a surprisingly strong rebound, highlighting an increasingly divergent demand picture across the major consuming regions.

The European Cocoa Association (ECA) reported Q2 cocoa grindings of 316,366 metric tons, down 4.6% from 331,762 tons a year earlier and the weakest second-quarter performance since 2020. The figures reinforce evidence that high cocoa prices continue to weigh on chocolate demand across Europe's largest processing region.

By contrast, the Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) reported Q2 2026 grindings of 224,646 metric tons, a 25.1% year-on-year increase and 0.5% above Q1 2026, signalling resilient processing activity despite elevated bean prices. First-half grindings reached 448,149 metric tons, up 14.3% from the same period last year.

Malaysia remained the standout performer. Data released jointly by the Malaysian Cocoa Board and the Cocoa Manufacturers Group showed Q2 grindings rising 29.4% year-on-year to 90,849 metric tons, underscoring Southeast Asia's growing importance as a global processing hub.

US Data Awaited

The National Confectioners Association had not yet released its Q2 grindings figures at the time of writing, with the market awaiting the final major regional demand indicator later today.

The contrasting regional results suggest cocoa demand remains soft in mature Western markets while Asian processing continues to expand. For traders, attention is now shifting back to West African weather, where developing crop risks are increasingly competing with improving global supply fundamentals as the market's primary price driver.

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