StoneX forecasts output of 5.136 million tonnes and a 422,000-tonne surplus, while Transgraph Consulting projects production of about 5.1 million tonnes and a 415,000-tonne surplus. Both estimates remain below the ICCO’s record of 5.244 million tonnes in 2020-21.
West African production has improved. Côte d’Ivoire forecasts a crop of 2 million–2.1 million tonnes in May, while subsequent port arrivals exceeded 2.1 million tonnes. However, arrivals may include carry-over stocks and are not directly comparable with current-season production.
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In Ghana, provisional COCOBOD data put output at about 771,000 tonnes, 18.6% above its initial forecast and roughly 28% higher than the preceding fiscal period’s 603,840 tonnes.
The larger crop has not resolved Ghana’s liquidity problems. COCOBOD is seeking GH¢16.3 billion, or approximately $1.4 billion, through a domestic Cocoa Note programme. An initial GH¢6.3 billion tranche is expected to combine commercial paper for seasonal purchases with a bond to refinance existing obligations.
The proposed safeguards include ring-fenced accounts, trustee oversight and export receivables covering at least 1.2 times debt service. However, the programme remains a financing proposal rather than confirmed purchasing liquidity. Ghana has yet to announce the new season’s opening date, while licensed buyers are seeking about GH¢4 billion in arrears.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s cocoa-bean receipts rose about 37% year on year to approximately 154,800 tonnes over the final quarter of 2025 and first half of 2026. Ecuador, by contrast, exported 263,137 tonnes of cocoa and products between January and July, down 8.3%, weakening manufacturers’ efforts to diversify supply beyond West Africa.
Demand also remains subdued. Nielsen data cited by Barry Callebaut showed chocolate-confectionery volumes across 26 countries falling 5.6% during the company’s first nine months.
The ICCO has yet to publish its 2025-26 production and grinding estimates while its methodology is under review. Until then, the emerging surplus case looks increasingly credible – but neither a record crop nor dependable 2026-27 availability has been established.
Market Takeaway: Supply is recovering, but Ghana’s unresolved financing needs and weaker Ecuadorian exports leave the outlook less comfortable than the headline surplus suggests.
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