Fresh evidence suggests Côte d'Ivoire may be carrying substantially more cocoa than the market has priced in, with unaccounted inventories and a stronger-than-expected mid-crop potentially lifting 2025-26 production above 2 million tonnes and toward 2.2 million tonnes.
According to X posts by cocoa analyst @Rebelty_8, Côte d'Ivoire port arrivals reached 1.69 million tonnes by 7 June, while citing an official Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) tally of 1.822 million tonnes. Weekly arrivals were estimated at 31,000 tonnes, up 64% from 18,855 tonnes a year earlier.
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The key issue is the size of unsold stocks. Reuters reported in February that warehouses across Côte d'Ivoire were overflowing with unsold beans, prompting the CCC to launch a programme to buy back 100,000 tonnes of ageing inventories. Reuters later reported farmer protests over unpaid beans and noted that authorities were unable to quantify the extent of stocks held by cooperatives and producers.
CocoaRadar understands a government census identified roughly 350,000 tonnes of unsold cocoa, compared with a previous CCC estimate of 123,000 tonnes. Combined with expectations for another 160,000-200,000 tonnes from the remaining mid-crop, total 2025-26 output could reach 1.98-2.2 million tonnes, or 300,000-600,000 tonnes above trade expectations centred around 1.7-1.8 million tonnes.