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ICCO Cuts 2024-25 Surplus Estimate as Global Cocoa Market Shifts into Recovery Mode

Analysis: The International Cocoa Organization’s (ICCO) May 2026 bulletin confirms that the global cocoa market has moved from the severe deficits of recent years into a modest surplus, although the balance is tighter than previously expected

Image shows cocoa beans drying in the sun.
Uptick in West African cocoa bean production eases supply worries, Image: CocoaRadar

ICCO revised 2024-25 world cocoa production to 4.723 million tonnes, up 8.3% year-on-year (+361,000 tonnes), reflecting a strong recovery in West African output. Global grindings were revised higher to 4.628 million tonnes, but remain 3.8% below last season (-182,000 tonnes), highlighting continued demand weakness linked to historically high cocoa prices.

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