Cocoa rallies to five-month high as El Niño fears outweigh strong Côte d’Ivoire arrivals

The rally follows Reuters reporting that Côte d’Ivoire has temporarily suspended sales of 2026-27 export contracts after selling around 1.15 million tonnes, with the Le Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) awaiting updated crop forecasts before resuming sales in early July. Officials cited uncertainty over El Niño’s impact and said the regulator is prioritising sales to multinational exporters amid heightened market volatility.

Citi Raises Cocoa Price Outlook As ‘Super El Niño’ Threat Puts Latin American Producers On Alert

Analysis: Key cocoa suppliers tell CocoaRadar they are preparing for heightened risks from drought, excessive rainfall and disease pressure as market prepares to weather the storm

From The Desk of CocoaRadar™Anthony Myers

Despite weather concerns, current supply indicators remain robust. Reuters estimates Côte d’Ivoire’s 2025-26 cocoa arrivals reached 1.883 million tonnes by 21 June, up 18% year-on-year, with weekly arrivals rising to 29,000 tonnes from 19,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Independent market analysts also highlighted the improving supply picture. X posts from @krusts (Economist) noted stronger port arrivals, above-normal rainfall across key cocoa regions and growing oversupply risks, arguing that ample stocks could ultimately pressure prices lower. 

While @rebelty likewise maintained a bearish longer-term outlook, citing expectations of a 400,000-600,000-tonne global surplus in 2025-26, despite weather-driven volatility supporting prices in the near term.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that heavy rainfall across Côte d’Ivoire has raised concerns about flooding, disease pressure, and bean quality during the final stages of the mid-crop, as farmers begin monitoring the development of the next main crop.